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Sunday, September 13, 2020

Biden ahead in Minnesota and Arizona, CBS polls indicate

Two of the most traditionally predictable states in U.S. presidential elections are Arizona and Minnesota. New polls released Sunday showed Democratic nominee Joe Biden ahead in both of them.

A CBS News Battleground Tracker poll put Biden ahead of President Donald Trump in Minnesota among likely voters by a margin of 50 percent to 41 percent. There would be nothing unusual about a Democrat winning Minnesota; the last Republican presidential candidate to carry the state was President Richard M. Nixon in 1972. Trump did come within 2 percentage points of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Trump‘s campaign has looked to Minnesota as a state it could possibly pick up this year.

Polling also placed Biden ahead of Trump in Arizona, by a margin of 47 percent to 44 percent. Arizona has been one of the most dependably Republican states in presidential elections, with only one Democrat (President Bill Clinton in 1996) winning the state in the last 17 presidential elections. Trump won the state in 2016 by 3 percentage points, but the Biden campaign has targeted it this year.

In Arizona, Biden benefited from a lopsided advantage among Hispanic voters, 62 percent to 27 percent. Trump had a significant edge there among voters 65 years old and older, prevailing 63 percent to 35. (In Minnesota, in contrast, Biden and Trump were tied among voters in that age group.)

Biden also had an edge over Trump among female voters in both states, particularly white women with college degrees.

The polls were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov Sept. 9-11, based on samples of 1,122 registered voters in Arizona and 1,100 in Minnesota. Margins of error among registered voters were plus or minus 3.8 percentage points in Arizona and 3.6 points in Minnesota.

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