New Jersey holds an unprecedented primary election on Tuesday, with most voters likely to cast their ballots through the mail because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The state’s vote-by-mail system, which has been greatly expanded over the last couple of years, will be put to a major test after Gov. Phil Murphy ordered that all registered Democrats and Republicans received mail-in ballots, and that all unaffiliated voters be sent applications for them. At least half of all polling places in New Jersey will be open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. for voters to cast provisional ballots.
That’s added an element of uncertainty to what otherwise would likely be a low-turnout election since the presidential primary is no longer contested.
The primary is drawing some national attention because of hotly contested congressional races in two southern New Jersey swing districts. It will also be a test of whether what happened in New York last month, when progressives defeated or came within striking distance of some well-entrenched incumbents, can be repeated across the Hudson River.
The primary, originally scheduled for June 2, was delayed by more than a month because of the pandemic.
Here are five things to watch on Tuesday:
THE COMPETITIVE RACES
The two most closely watched primaries are in South Jersey congressional districts.
In the 2nd District, which stretches from the Jersey Shore westward to the suburbs of Philadelphia, five Democrats are seeking the party’s nomination to challenge Democrat-turned-Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew, who already has the support of President Donald Trump.
The frontrunners are political science professor Brigid Harrison and former teacher Amy Kennedy, a member of Democrats’ most famous political dynasty. Harrison has the support of six of the eight county Democratic parties in the district, but Kennedy, the wife of former U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.), is backed by the local party in Atlantic County — the most Democratic-rich county in the district.
The race has become a proxy war between progressives, public-sector labor unions and Murphy, all of whom back Kennedy, and the South Jersey Democratic machine, led by power broker George Norcross and state Senate President Steve Sweeney, which supports Harrison. Also running are attorney and former congressional staffer Will Cunningham, environmentalist John Francis III and former FBI agent Rob Turkavage.
In the neighboring 3rd District, there’s a fight between the more moderate Burlington County Republicans and the more conservative Ocean County Republicans for the opportunity to take on Democratic freshman Rep. Andy Kim in November.
Burlington Republicans back Kate Gibbs, a former county freeholder who, as a millennial suburban woman, hits a demographic sweet spot the GOP has been hemorrhaging in the Trump era.
The Ocean County GOP has gotten behind David Richter, a former construction company executive who grew up in the district but had not lived there in decades. Richter initially announced his candidacy in the 2nd District, but chose to run instead in the 3rd District after Van Drew switched parties.
While Richter has not been endorsed by Trump, the president’s deputy campaign manager, Bill Stepien — who also was a top aide to former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — is advising Richter, who was given a speaking slot at Trump’s January rally in Wildwood.
BERNIE PROGRESSIVES
Supporters of former Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders are running against incumbents in the majority of New Jersey’s 10 Democrat-held House districts. Several of those insurgent candidates have adopted the Sanders slogan, “Not me. Us.”
Incumbent Reps. Josh Gottheimer (5th District), Frank Pallone (6th District), Albio Sires (8th District), Bill Pascrell (9th District), Donald Payne (10th District) and Bonnie Watson Coleman (12th District) are all facing primary challengers who identify with Sanders.
Chances are slim the Sanders backers will upset any of the incumbents. But if there is one race to watch, it’s in North Jersey’s 8th District, which is dominated by Hudson County. Sires, the 14-year incumbent, has gone negative against progressive challenger Hector Oseguera. Sires typically skates to reelection, so for him to have to work hard against a primary challenger shows the Democratic establishment in the district is at least taking this challenge more seriously than previous ones.
SENATE PRIMARIES
U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, who is generally popular in New Jersey, is up for his second full term this year. He faces Larry Hamm — a local activist who organized a peaceful anti-police brutality protest in Newark in May that drew thousands — in the Democratic primary.
Hamm is not expected to defeat Booker, who has deep organizational support across the state, but a stronger-than-expected result could be an indication of increasing progressive power within New Jersey’s Democratic Party.
The Republican primary to take on Booker is more competitive. Rik Mehta, a pharmacist and entrepreneur, is the frontrunner, with the support of most county GOP organizations. But Hirsh Singh, an engineer who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for governor in 2017 and for the 2nd District House seat in 2018, has the support of several Republican organizations, including the powerful one in Ocean County. Natalie Lynn Rivera and Tricia Flanagan are competing for the nomination as well, but neither has significant organization support.
While the contest has gotten nasty, with Singh accusing Mehta of being a Democratic plant and Mehta attacking Singh over “lies,” virtually no one familiar with New Jersey politics thinks either candidate will give Booker a scare.
New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1972.
VOTING ISSUES
County election officials warned at a state Assembly committee hearing last month that the state was woefully unprepared for the crush of mail-in ballots that are expected, and that the New Jersey’s new Statewide Voter Registration System, implemented in January, has had numerous technical issues and bugs. There are also reports of the system repeatedly crashing.
A test run of sorts during about a dozen all vote-by-mail municipal elections on May 12 exposed some vulnerabilities with the system. State Attorney General Gurbir Grewal has charged four people — including an incumbent councilman and councilman-elect — with voter fraud over how mail-in ballots were handled in Paterson.
Hiccups are inevitable with millions of mail-in ballots circulating. What remains to be seen is whether the problems are small and containable or widespread. There will likely be an unprecedented number of people voting in person via provisional ballot as well.
TURNOUT
Normally, a congressional primary where the presidential contest is basically uncontested would be a low turnout affair. That may not be the case this year, thanks to the coronavirus pandemic.
With the state sending all registered Democrats and Republicans mail-in ballots, voters won’t have to go to the polls. The mail-in system may also serve to remind many voters that there actually is a primary. The unpredictability of the turnout is likely playing a role in why Hudson County Democrats aren’t taking any chances with Sires, and why Pascrell recently touted endorsements he’s received from top New Jersey Democrats.
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